Human Lives Human Rights: The Russian government has recently escalated its military confrontation with the Ukrainian government, as well as the NATO alliance and Western countries. This crisis can be attributed to two major and strategic reasons, which are discussed below.
The first reason is Russia’s opposition to NATO’s expansion to the east, which it has always regarded as its red line. Over time, as Russia’s economic power increased, its opposition shifted from political to military actions. For instance, in 2008, Russia waged a war in South Ossetia with Georgia, and in 2014, it intervened in the Ukrainian crisis by supporting the militia and annexing the Crimean peninsula.
The second reason is Russia’s geopolitical and legal interests in preventing countries like Georgia and Ukraine from joining NATO. Geopolitically, Russia fears that if these countries become NATO members, it will be completely surrounded by the US and NATO, and its access to strategic regions such as the Caucasus and Eastern Europe will be severely restricted. Legally, Russia knows that NATO has a condition for membership that requires applicants to maintain a certain level of political independence and sovereignty. Russia also knows that some established NATO members, such as France and Germany, are reluctant to admit Ukraine and Georgia because they do not want to antagonize Russia, which is their main supplier of fossil fuels.
In the latest development of this crisis, Russia has recognized the independence of the separatist regions of eastern Ukraine, namely Luhansk and Donetsk, and has deployed its military forces there to support the separatists. By doing so, Russia is using its geographical proximity to these regions to undermine the legal basis for Ukraine’s membership in NATO. This policy is reinforced by Vladimir Putin’s clear and public stance against Ukraine and Georgia’s accession to NATO.
Therefore, Russia has sent a clear message to Kyiv and NATO by mobilizing its troops along its western borders that it will not tolerate any violation of its red line. Moreover, Russia has indicated that it is ready to use nuclear weapons against further expansion of NATO to the east, based on its 2020 national security document.
